Thursday, October 27, 2011

Why Economic Models Are Always Wrong

Many, many, many people saw the economic collapse.

I was reading plenty of blogs on the housing bubble, housingpanic.com, et etc, describing the preposterousness of "liar loans", subprime this, and idiocy that, and the crazy valuations.

The New York Times even had a plot of the inflation-adjusted Case-Schiller price index which was enormously above any prior peak. During 2006 and 2007 and 2008.

The notion that "nobody" saw it is simply propagandistic truthiness baloney. I personally didn't profit, because I was much too early shorting the mortgage companies & home builders and got stopped out---the bubble was too powerful.

The real crime is that a small number of very powerful people had an exceptionally lucrative interest in NOT stopping it, because they were getting ginormous paychecks from the continuation of the bubble. And now the notion that nobody could see it is used as excuses for the powerful to excuse themselves from responsibility from fraud and crime.

Down in the guts of banks, there were both risk modeling quants in the fancy banks, and the traditional "ladies with a bun" in the retail banks who processed the paperwork who saw how much outright fraud and insanity there was. Their jobs were threatened when they attempted to speak up and stop the madness, because the business side executives were making shitloads of shekels on volume.

Source: http://rss.slashdot.org/~r/Slashdot/slashdotScience/~3/RtIvnrVCTjk/why-economic-models-are-always-wrong

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